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	<Header>
		<Application
			name="SPSS 14.0 for Windows"
			version="14.0.0"/>
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	<DataDictionary>
		<DateSpecification
			dateSpecID="1"
			dateSpecDescriptor="Date specification derived from SPSS time-series date variables">
			<Periods>
				<Year
					firstCaseIndex="1988"/>
				<Month
					cycleLength="12"
					firstCaseIndex="0"/>
			</Periods>
		</DateSpecification>
	</DataDictionary>
	<ARIMAModel
		modelName="Model_1"
		modelDescriptor="men_ARIMA"
		variableID="men"
		dateSpecID="1"
		seasonLength="12">
		<Transformation
			seasonalDiff="1"/>
		<PredictorEffect
			variableID="mail">
			<Transformation
				seasonalDiff="1"/>
			<Numerator>
				<NonSeasonalFactor>
					<ZeroLagTerm>
						<EstimatedParameter>1.54948672225265 0.0706142236639578</EstimatedParameter>
					</ZeroLagTerm>
				</NonSeasonalFactor>
			</Numerator>
		</PredictorEffect>
		<PredictorEffect
			variableID="phone">
			<Transformation
				seasonalDiff="1"/>
			<Numerator>
				<NonSeasonalFactor>
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						<EstimatedParameter>315.261654581812 15.2984820933097</EstimatedParameter>
					</ZeroLagTerm>
				</NonSeasonalFactor>
			</Numerator>
		</PredictorEffect>
		<OutlierEffect
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			startIndex="14">
			<EstimatedParameter>-3885.05852277313 823.768979275968</EstimatedParameter>
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			startIndex="115">
			<EstimatedParameter>8770.68303080725 1167.90490105755</EstimatedParameter>
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		<ARIMACLSState
			periodDeficit="0">
			<PredictorState>
				<FinalPredictor>11890 11722 11589 11633 11951 11706 11460 11808 12781 11690 11393 15263</FinalPredictor>
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			<PredictorState>
				<FinalPredictor>50 42 50 32 47 49 46 44 49 43 48 53</FinalPredictor>
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			<ZState>
				<FinalZ>22028.8 17719.9 19408.95 14169.61 19916.02 19001.89 18631.15 30208.17 24467.94 23602 24289.32 38609.66</FinalZ>
				<FinalPredictedZ>21502.8333413266 18789.2687741831 20169.4570129616 15238.6361694497 20260.1567745686 20847.3487757168 19742.2588935732 30208.1699999957 23478.74010876 23934.140841225 25638.3194037432 37728.7117154807</FinalPredictedZ>
			</ZState>
			<NoiseState/>
		</ARIMACLSState>
		<EstimationInfo
			periodStartIndex="0"
			periodLength="120"
			degreesOfFreedom="97">
			<Statistic
				type="errVariance">1356640.09226289</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanSqrErr">1356640.09226289</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="rootMeanSqrErr">1164.74893958436</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanAbsPctErr">5.71728637748179</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanAbsErr">815.011112432786</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="maxAbsPctErr">42.0491734685798</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="maxAbsErr">4230.64723610341</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="rSqr">0.969306976605636</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="normBayesIC">14.5974054166422</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="logLikelihood">-909.952838910075</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="akaikeIC">1841.90567782015</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="bayesIC">1871.40912131852</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="stationaryRSqr">0.948306824629539</Statistic>
			<LjungBoxStatistic
				k="18"
				degreesOfFreedom="18"
				pValue="0.984146966768102">7.58906773352625</LjungBoxStatistic>
		</EstimationInfo>
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